*Chickens are coming home to roost for Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Nobel laureate, who has helped to bring disaster upon his country

Bobby Ghosh

As rebel troops advance toward Addis Ababa, chickens are coming home to roost for Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose belligerence has helped to bring about this calamity; and for African Union (AU) and the United States (US), whose quiescence has contributed to it.

Having long since betrayed the principles that won him the Nobel Peace Prize two years ago, Abiy is now exhorting citizens in the capital to arm themselves in preparation for the consequences of his political choices.

The Prime Minister shows no interest in negotiations with the Tigray People鈥檚 Liberation Front (TPLF), the northern group that is in revolt against the national government.

He has brushed aside allegations by the US and humanitarian organisations of ethnic cleansing by his allies in the civil war.

The AU and the US, meanwhile, are struggling to respond to the repercussions of their own inaction.

Little has been heard from the AU, which has been mostly mum as the continent鈥檚 second-most populous country has descended into the worst ethnic conflagration since the Rwandan genocide.

The most charitable explanation is that the AU is overburdened. There are concurrent crises across much of the Sahel, the band of countries stretching across the continent just south of the Sahara.

But the organisation is also beholden to the Ethiopian Government 鈹� the AU鈥檚 headquarters are in Addis Ababa 鈹� and has been reluctant to criticise Abiy, much less pressure him to parley with the TPLF.

At least the US has finally roused itself to action. A day after Secretary of State Antony Blinken pronounced himself 鈥渁larmed鈥� at the TPLF鈥檚 takeover of two key northeastern towns, the Biden administration suspended Ethiopia鈥檚 duty-free access to the American market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), citing gross violations of internationally recognised rights.

But the US remains reluctant to name and shame those responsible for those violations.

It has not followed through on its threat to impose sanctions against individuals and entities deemed to be prolonging the civil war.

Still, the suspension of duty-free access is more than a rap on Abiy鈥檚 knuckles. Ethiopia exported goods worth $245 million to the US last year under the AGOA, almost half its shipments to America.

The Ethiopian economy, once Africa鈥檚 most promising, has been damaged by the conflict. Worse is to come.

Jeffrey Feltman, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, has described the situation as dire and deteriorating.

鈥淲ithout question, the situation is getting worse and we are frankly alarmed,鈥� he said.

Investors seem to share Feltman鈥檚 assessment: Ethiopia鈥檚 Eurobonds nosedived after Abiy鈥檚 government declared a state of emergency.

Last month, Moody鈥檚 cut the nation鈥檚 credit rating to Caa2 鈹� the same level as Cuba and Sri Lanka 鈹� citing the escalating fighting among other concerns.

Abiy has thus far been impervious to economic penalties. A year ago, he shrugged off the European Union鈥檚 decision to suspend nearly 90 million euros ($108 million) in aid.

But the cost of the civil war has escalated since then, so the suspension of duty-free access to the US will certainly be felt. The timing, as the rebels advance toward the capital, may amplify the impact.

But the Joe Biden administration should now prepare sterner measures, including acting on the threat of sanctions.

The US should also coordinate with the EU to impose tougher economic punishment if Abiy does not start negotiations.

Bringing the Tigrayans to talks will be tougher now that the rebels are on the ascendancy. That task should fall on the African Union.

The prospect of TPLF fighters at the gates of its headquarters, in Addis Ababa, should be incentive enough for the AU to finally act.

Bobby Ghosh, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and Africa.

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