*The Independent Media and Policy Initiative, a think-tank, affirms the National Bureau of Statistics latest reports on Nigeria’s latest Gross Domestic Product figure and unemployment rate conforms to global metrics

Isola Moses | 绿帽献妻

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a think-tank, has affirmed the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recent reports on Nigeria’s latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure and the unemployment rate are in line with global metrics.

Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, Chairman of IMPI, in a policy statement, said there was no basis to accept one report and reject another.

绿帽献妻 reports some critics of the NBS reports have claimed otherwise, and sought to discredit the reports that were largely positive a few weeks.

Yet, reports indicated same critics have applauded the NBS general household survey, which painted a dire picture of the Nigerian economy.

Dr. Akinsiju said: “The NBS reported a drop in the nation’s unemployment rate from 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 to 4.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024.

“This figure suggests that only about four people out of every 100 Nigerians are currently unemployed, a positive indication of a reduction in the nation’s unemployment data.”

IMPI also noted: “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased to 3.46 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2024.

“This growth rate is higher than the 2.54 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2023 and the 3.19 percent growth in the second quarter of 2024.

“Apparently, to the doubters, these figures were too good to be true.”

The group stated: “The social media space and the community of critics became unrelenting in questioning the basis of the data; some dismissed them as ‘voodoo data’ and ‘propaganda figures’.”

“We find this growing culture of brazen repudiation of NBS data rather inappropriate, especially when, as often, the refutation is not grounded in facts and logic.”

The Chairman of the group seud: “One critic dismissed the second quarter unemployment data because, in his logic, the unemployment rate could not have decreased while factories closed and businesses reported unsold inventories. “Another criticised the methodology used to arrive at the figure on the ground that it lacks transparency.”

IMPI submitted: “We submit that this is the crux of the matter.

“Most critics and commentators lack an understanding of the methodology that foregrounds the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS), even though the NBS has adopted and deployed it since the first quarter of 2023.

The think-tank stated: “In the first quarter of 2023, NBS adopted the International Labour Organisation (ILO) approved and recommended methodology to measure employment and unemployment per term.

“The updated method aims to conform with global standards by providing a more accurate picture of the labour market in the context of the nation’s socio-demographic profile.”

IMPI submitted: “In line with ILO guidelines, NBS defines employed persons as those in paid employment who have worked for at least one hour in the last seven days.

“This measurement contrasts the previous method, where an employed person must have worked for at least 20 hours within seven days to qualify as employed.”

Akinsiju, however, opined that “the one hour in the last seven days labour engagement metric effectively enlarges the basis of employment measurement to include, in this case, Nigerians who are working for themselves.

He equally stated: “This expansion reflects the 71.2 million Nigerians said to be working for themselves.

“In contrast, just 12.96 million others work for wages out of 88.9 million in the country’s labour force, as data in the second quarter of the NBS labour force survey show.”

The policy group is of the view that the high rate of self-employed people captured in the NBS report had a positive effect on the overall picture of employed Nigerians.

The group stated: “In developing countries like Nigeria, many workers outside urban areas work in agriculture, retail finance – Point of Sales (POS), and Transportation/logistics (commercial vehicle operators, artisans, etc.).

“All these have one form of formal affiliation or the other with the Ministry of Labour and Employment through their registered unions and trade groups.

“The land distribution in these countries implies that the agricultural sector is dominated by self-employment on family farms, and the leading occupational choice is self-employment in farming versus non-farming, with only a tiny role for wage employment.”

IMPI said: “This forms the basis of NBS labour survey methodology and justifies the inclusion of the vast number of self-employed Nigerians in the labour force and the segmentation of their labour engagements, which were not included in the old survey methodology.

“The Labour data aligns with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance data for the third quarter of 2024, which the NBS also released.”

The group stated: “According to the data, the economy expanded by 3.46 percent overall, but the service sector mostly drove the growth.

“Like the labour force survey data, the GDP performance, which outperformed projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and other research institutions, was contrary to market expectations.”

IMPI also provided some insights into the role of the service sector in Nigeria’s GDP figure in the third quarter of this year.

“We are delighted that the nation’s service sector has emerged as the lead sector of the economy.

“The three-sector model in economics divides economies into three sectors of activity: extraction of raw materials (primary), manufacturing (secondary), and service industries, which facilitate the transport, distribution, and sale of goods produced in the secondary sector (tertiary),” it said.

The group further explained: “The primary sector involves extracting raw materials from the earth, such as mining, forestry, or farming.

“The secondary sector involves manufacturing raw materials into goods, such as turning grains into pasta or trees into lumber.

“The tertiary sector, or the service sector, includes ICT, trade, and financial services.”

IMPI noted: “Though some experts have criticised the service sector’s contributions to the economy, historically, it has been the dominant segment of the Nigerian economy.

“It was the highest contributor to the national economy, at 53.58 per cent, in the third quarter of 2024, a decline from the 58.76 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024.

“On average, the sector has contributed 50 percent to Nigeria’s GDP over the last four years.

It also affirmed that “the service sector is a key part of any economy’s development, and its role is growing.

“It is the most significant part of the global economy’s business activity and a major driver of economic growth, especially in developing economies.”

The policy think tank as well identified ICT as the main driver of the country’s GDP growth and urged the federal government to take more deliberate steps to grow the service sector of the economy.

The group said: “Indeed, a 10 percent increase in mobile broadband penetration in Africa can increase GDP per capita by 2.5 per cent.

“A 10 percent increase in internet penetration rate can increase real GDP per capita by 0.57 to 0.63 percentage points. Regarding the Nigerian economy’s actuals, the third quarter’s GDP growth of 6.78 per cent in telecommunications was robust, driven by expanding mobile and Broadband penetration, indicating sustained demand for telecom services despite economic challenges.”

Akinsiju added: “With the right investments and policy frameworks, ICT has the potential to solidify its role as Nigeria’s economic growth engine, which has the propensity to propel the country toward a more digital and connected future.

“The importance of ICT in GDP growth is further evidenced by the N2.55 trillion paid in taxes in the first half of this year by foreign digital companies operating in the country, including Google, Microsoft, and TikTok.”

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